June 2021

We’ve thought about it…

Last month we wrote that the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US had struck a very cautious tone in May, that they were merely thinking about, thinking about the tapering of their asset purchase programme (also known as QE). We cautioned that the market gets very sensitive whenever there is even a whiff of a withdrawal of monetary stimulus -which has been irresistible to equity and bond investors over many years. But in June they had little option but to accept that inflationary forces and the speed of the economic recovery may not only instigate a reduction in stimulus, but also bring forward the potential for interest rates to rise. 

Central banks –such as the Federal Reserve (in the US) and Bank of England (in the UK) – are well aware of the important role they play in the price stability of markets. However, in recent months the Fed has become more unpredictable, with markets clearly sensitive to change in rhetoric – as we saw in mid-June, when Fed chair (Jerome Powell) began to recognise inflationary pressures and suggest interest rates may need to rise sooner than expected. Whilst all recessions are different, the COVID induced recession has no modern precedent and so even central banks are in unchartered waters. On inflation, this has finally been recognised by the Fed as being something to monitor more closely which has, in turn, lowered the chance of runaway inflation. Had the Fed not recognised inflation at the latest meeting, inflation sensitive assets would have been in high demand -as it is abundantly clear (from our everyday lives) that there is, at least in the short term, acute inflationary pressures. Our base case is that inflation in the UK and US will average 3-5% (higher end in the US) over the next 12 months. 

Whilst historically this inflation rate has been a good environment for equities, what makes it different this time round is the base level (near zero) of interest rates, and so any significant and sustained increase in inflation will need to be tempered by raising interest rates. Given that the world is awash with debt since the COVID crisis, this can have a material effect on borrowing costs. Rising interest rates can also have an effect on growth-focused stocks in the equity markets, that have been elevated to lofty valuations, with ultra-low rates. When this begins to reverse, these valuations could come tumbling down. In this environment, high growth sectors, such as technology and healthcare become vulnerable. So, investors would be prudent to avoid blue sky companies (e.g. Tesla) on very high valuations as well as companies that have high portions of debt, such as utilities, and focus rather on quality businesses, able to pass on costs to customers, trading on fair valuations and with relatively low debt. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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May 2021

Thinking About…

The last decade has seen returns come relatively easily to investors. The economic backdrop globally –averaging steady growth, with low inflation –coupled with persistently accommodative monetary policy, has seen most assets fare well both in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) terms. There is a sense, this year, that the tide is starting to change and investors, alongside policy makers, are getting nervous. The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) showed their clear concern on the effect the withdrawal of stimulus might have on asset prices, giving a very cautious tone that they are merely thinking about, thinking about (tapering asset purchases and raising interest rates) it. 

There is general agreement that the monetary policy backdrop in most developed nations has had a considerable effect on inflating asset prices over the last decade. This is mostly due to the near zero interest rate policy forcing investors into other assets (than cash) in order to receive a return. The Fed is well aware of this phenomenon and, if the minutes from their latest meeting in May were anything to go by, are very nervous about the market reaction when they start to withdraw the stimulus that investors have become not only addicted to, but accustomed to, over many years. One of the key roles of central banks is to ensure financial stability and some officials have expressed concern over elevated asset prices and risk of destabilisation. Strong growth and inflationary forces are undoubtedly putting pressure on central banks to start considering the withdrawal of stimulus and an increase in interest rates, and so guidance needs to be careful if they are to avoid a “taper tantrum” and ensuing declines in asset prices. 

Whilst the ongoing impact of COVID will be a headline grabber and market mover in the months ahead, we believe the real market driver lurks beneath the surface –that of inflationary forces and central bank policy. If central banks get this wrong (by being too cautious or too aggressive), it can have a dramatic effect on asset prices. So, what can one do to protect themself from an environment that is, in effect, the inverse of what we have experienced in the last decade? The answer: diversify –but diversify effectively. Create a portfolio that protects you against inflationary forces –by including real assets such as commodities, property and infrastructure; reduce exposure to long duration (interest rate sensitive) assets, such as long-dated bonds and high growth stocks; start to look again at those steady businesses that have been left behind in the last 12-months as neither high growth (lockdown winners) nor deep value (re-opening winners), more so the stalwarts that compound year on year; and finally, be more active –in asset allocation and security selection.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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April 2021

Sell in May?

April was a quieter month in markets –giving investors some respite after a roller coaster ride since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. Significant vaccine and therapeutic progress in the fight against COVID was offset by new, devastating waves in regions such as India. Overall, it was a positive month for risk assets with equities extending gains for the year. As we approach the summer months, investors find themselves at an inflection point: on the one hand, we have huge pent-up consumer demand about to be unleashed; on the other we have equity markets that have just enjoyed a near record setting 12-month period of performance. So, should investors pay attention to the old adage of Sell in May and go away?

Markets are very good at discounting available information and tend to look forward by about six months. This has been very true over the last 12 months –from record low yields and a world living at home saw huge demand for growth and technology stocks; to news of the vaccine in November last year shifting investors’ views to the great re-opening that favoured cyclically sensitive assets. As we enter the summer months, a lot of good news is now baked into asset prices and valuations across the board are on the expensive side. Overall, we do not expect to see significant price growth in stocks or bonds over the next six months, in what has historically been a softer patch for equities. 

What we have seen in the last year, however, is the considerable opportunity for active management –both in asset allocation and stock selection –being able to add value. So, whilst we do not expect the aggregate value of assets to move significantly higher over the short term, we do believe that opportunities exist in more specific regions, sectors and stocks. As regular readers will know, in recent months, this has been through exposure to value stocks, where prices remain attractive relative to company prospects and our favoured funds in this sector have rewarded investors well. We believe fundamentals will matter more now, than they have done in recent years, with closer attention given to company earnings, outlook prospects and valuations, rather than the broad macro (economy as a whole) picture. 

As long-term investors we will, if anything, be switching rather than selling this May. We remain very conscious of the strong performance of risk assets and our desire to safeguard and grow client assets –and so use the tools at our disposal to remain relevant and forward looking to the world that lies ahead and not that the one that has passed. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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March 2021

IPO Frenzy

Another eventful month brings the first quarter of 2021 to an end -which has seen a continuation of the positive sentiment for risk assets that has been in place since the nadir of the market turmoil last March. And, once again, it is valuestocks that are leading the way, relative to growth, as rising bond yields continue to put the brakes on high valuations (notably in the technology sector). Taking advantage of such high valuations, we have seen a flurry of technology businesses come to the market and, at the end of March, we had the much-anticipated Deliveroo IPO (initial public offering) here in the UK. 

Deliveroo –the online food delivery company –was founded in London in 2013 by Will Shu. Now a global brand (albeit not in the US yet), the company decided to take advantage of the IPO frenzy of recent months and list on the public market. It was a big coup for London to get the listing of Deliveroo, as it attempts to cement and grow its position as a technology centre. Globally, we have seen more IPOs in the first three months of 2021 than any year of the last 20, with the exception of last year. So, 2021 is on course to be a blowout year for companies listing. Whilst that might sound like a great thing –cynics may suggest that companies are taking advantage of extremely favourable market conditions. This is particularly the case in the technology sector, where companies can command high valuations and, more importantly, people are willing to pay for them. Deliveroo’s IPO in the UK followed hot on the heels of the US listing of Bumble –the online dating and social media company, headed up by Whitney Wolfe Herd –which created great fanfare. Bumble’s shares have struggled since listing day and Deliveroo took a 30% hit on its first day of trading –further evidence that the heat may be coming out of the technology sector. 

The IPO market and dynamics can have broader implications on investor sentiment. This sort of frenzy is another reason that we are cautious on the technology sector and favour more reasonably priced (value) sectors at present. That said, it is quite apparent that the world is changing and evolving, at pace, and we are keen to be part of that –so long as at a fair price. 

The months ahead will likely see the beginning of the great re-opening, which we are all looking forward to. Markets have been building up to this in recent months, as evidenced by the strong run in in cyclically sensitive assets (e.g. banks, airlines, commodities, etc.). Any further progress will depend on the scale of the re-opening as well as any potential setbacks, both here in the UK and internationally.  

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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February 2021

Bond Rout

The bond market had one of its worst months in years in February as benchmark yields rose consistently throughout the month. The US 10-year yield (a bellwether for the bond market) peaked at 1.5% at month end, after starting the year below 1%. Whilst it is not terribly surprising that bond yields should rise as the economy improves, the speed of the rise is what has taken investors by surprise –with bond yields reaching year-end forecasts in just a couple of months. A stronger growth and inflationary environment were the catalyst for the move, with the market believing that interest rates will be increased sooner and faster than expected. The effect of rising bond yields spilled over into other assets too with varying degrees of impact.

 Regular readers will know that we have been writing on inflationary pressures building for over six months now. Market expectations of inflation also reached new highs in February. Whilst many (including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell) believe inflationary pressures will be short lived, and transitory in nature, the market appears to perceive the risk being to the upside of this view. 

The effect of the move in bonds was also acutely felt in certain sectors of the equity and commodity markets. Within equities, “growthcompanies –which benefit from a low-rate environment, where the opportunity cost of waiting for their future value to emerge is lower –were hardest hit. In commodities, gold, whilst often being considered an inflation hedge, also came under pressure, as rising yields (particularly relative to inflation expectations) make holding gold less appealing. 

Relative safety was found in the “COVID losers” –those companies that fared worse in the pandemic. This is because part of the shift higher in bond yields was due to the imminent reopening (of the economy), likely to lead to strong economic growth and a reflationary environment. Cyclically focused businesses –such as airlines, pubs, banks, house builders, etc. –are best placed to benefit from such a backdrop. This is the area of the market known as “value” and has been broadly outperforming its “growth” counterpart since news of the vaccine first emerged in November. However, much of the easy money has now been made in the “value section of the market –going forward, stock selection will need to be more nuanced to determine those companies that will thrive, and not just survive, in 2021.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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January 2021

The Big Short (Squeeze)

It has been a year now since the first cases of COVID were reported in the UK –a year that has seen an extraordinary range of investor emotions. From denial and panic, as the pandemic raged across the world; followed by relief and optimism, as investors began to look towards a brighter future. The start of the year has seen that excitement expand, most recently with the scenes witnessed in the last week of January, as US retail investors exposed the vulnerabilities of Wall Street hedge funds.

Thanks to the army of day traders, using the social network Reddit to tout and bid up out-of-favour stocks and squeeze short sellers, some of the most unloved names have seen their share prices rocket in recent weeks. Retail investors have been targeting the most beaten down stocks in the market, for which GameStop –a video game and consumer electronics, retailer –has been the poster child (seeing its share price increase by a staggering 1,800% this year). In recent yearsthese stocks have been easy pickings for hedge funds to short (betting that the price will fall), often in sectors that are in structural decline. However, an online coup has been building: the theory being –if enough people were to buy such a stock, that would drive the price up to an extent that hedge funds would be forced to unwind their short positions and buy back the shares, driving the price up further –a self-fulfilling upward spiral. A social network, several hundred thousand members strong, and instant access trading accounts are a potent mix. Like locusts, going from one to the other, the most heavily shorted stocks in the US market are one by one becoming the top performing stocks in 2021. 

Historically, this level of investor excitement has been characterised by a market bubble, and an ensuing ‘pop’. However, looking across sectors and countries, we conclude that there is no generalised bubble yet, and most long-term investors continue to climb a wall of worry rather than deem the market to offer perpetual risk-free return. That is not to say that recent market dynamics are not of cause for concern and certain areas of the market are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics.

What does that mean for long-term investors? Clearly, this sort of opportunism is not our game, nor a strategy over the long-term that is sensible. When this particular hysteriaends, andend it will –driven by regulation (market collusion), restricted trading, or major losses after the party stops –fundamentals will return as the driver of asset prices. What it does remind us of, however, is the fragility of the market at times, and that everything has a price. Regular readers will know that we have gradually been rotating portfolios into more value related investments, that could benefit from a re-opening of the economy but also, crucially, offer just that –value, to investors, relative to pockets of the market that are unequivocally very inflated.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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December 2020

Let’s Get Active

2020 marked a sea change in the merits of an active approach to investment management – as opposed to passive, which dominated much of the last decade. 2010 – 2020 saw a rapid increase in the use of index funds and passive forms of investment management. The macro backdrop was hugely supportive of this, culminating in zero interest rates in much of the developed world; the net result of which was the lifting of most asset prices. COVID has accelerated the end of that cycle, with 2020 seeing a huge variety of returns across regions, sectors and assets –benefitting an active approach to fund management once again.

We start 2021 plunged back into a new wave of the COVID crisis – but with the (realistic) hope that, in a matter of months, the vaccine will pull us out and we will begin to return to a more normal way of life. The market is, of course, looking beyond the next few months and to what lies ahead – as many global markets finished 2020 at all-time highs (led by the US). However, asset prices are (on most metrics) expensive as we enter a new year, with an extraordinary run since the nadir of the crisis last March. Opportunity for returns appears sparse. That said, with the green shoots of recovery comes opportunity and the investment landscape never fails to provide rich hunting grounds for investors prepared to look hard enough – and so we wish to highlight an area of investment opportunity we see faring well in 2021, and beyond: the UK.

Here in the UK, we are at the forefront of vaccine development and roll-out, but also one of the hardest hit countries from the pandemic. At this juncture, our local market looks particularly interesting – the UK market has been unloved for a number of years now, partly due to the cyclical nature of its (FTSE 100) constituents, but also because global investor sentiment to the UK has been cautious (largely due to Brexit uncertainty). 2020 was a particularly poor year for UK equities, relative to global peers, although the fourth quarter of 2020 (triggered by the vaccine announcements) saw that begin to change. We believe the UK market is one of the few fairly priced markets in the developed world, that is likely to fare well on a re-opening of the global economy, as investors rotate away from stay-at-home stocks. Some easing of the Brexit impasse, with a trade deal being reached, and a strong global recovery should make for a rich hunting ground for UK investors.

Finally, we shall be writing more on inflation in the months ahead as we have portfolios positioned for this to increase in the years ahead, through our holdings in precious metals, inflation linked bonds, infrastructure and property assets. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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November 2020

The Great Rotation

 November has been the landmark month in the fight against COVID 19. In quick succession Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca all came out with their version of a vaccine – each trumping the former on the practicalities of distribution (storage temperatures). It was the efficacy number that was the standout figure in the announcements, far exceeding expectations and markets have reacted accordingly. We have seen a significant rotation from stay at home stocks to re-opening stocks.

The US election rallied investor spirits early in the month, cheering a Biden victory. This was tempered by the prospect of a divided Congress (with the Democrats taking the House and the Republicans having control of the Senate). This is not the “blue wave” expected by markets, but good enough –as it means Trump’s corporate tax cuts will stay in place while fiscal stimulus should turn out to be sufficient, rather than excessive. Policymaking should also become less erratic with Biden in the White House, which could reduce the risk premium on equities over time.

Markets didn’t have long to ponder the election, when we had the first release of vaccine results from Pfizer/BioNTech on 9th November. This triggered the start of a significant market rotation from those companies that have fared well during the pandemic (healthcare, technology, etc.) to those that have not (financials, industrials, travel & leisure, etc.). Over the last few years, the market had already been favouring the former (growth style) companies and shunning the latter (value style) companies. COVID extended the divergence to the extreme. The vaccine news triggered an immediate rotation into these deeply unloved and lowly valued sectors. The ensuing follow up vaccine results from Moderna and AstraZeneca compounded this rotation –capping off an exceptional month for value investors. 

Throughout the summer, we have been selectively buying funds that have exposure to these sectors, not with a view to predicting a successful vaccine, rather becoming concerned on valuations of some high-flying technology and related stay at home beneficiaries. Value investing is fraught with traps (those companies that are in structural decline) and therefore care needs to be made in selecting those managers we believe can identify great business at good discounts to fundamentals, where we believe the next few years could yield strong returns.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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October 2020

US Elections and Markets: Vaccine Boost 

The US election took place last week and the outcome was a clear victory for Joe Biden. President-elect Biden flipped the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Additionally, while it may take time to roll out, the recent positive US vaccine trial news looks to be very promising, with Pfizer finding a 90% efficacy rate in its latest trial.

The added complication, if the Democrats fail to take control of the Senate, has significant implications for US government policy going forward. Two Senate seats in Georgia are headed for a January run off election, giving Democrats a narrow path to winning both and yielding a 50-50 Senate, with the vice president as the tie breaker. A divided government (with Republicans retaining their control of the Senate) could see greater regulation for many sectors (such as the big technology companies), but big-ticket legislative action (including large-scale fiscal stimulus and public investment, tax, healthcare and climate related legislation), would likely face significant hurdles.

Some additional fiscal relief in the near term looks possible, but we see the size and scope of fiscal stimulus and public investment as more modest than a united Democratic government (i.e. control of both the House and the Senate) would likely deliver. Fiscal stimulus will be present in some shape or form however to aid the recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic, so we still expect government yields to slowly move up over the next few years, along with inflation expectations.

A Biden win likely signifies a return to more predictable trade and foreign policy. We believe emerging market assets should perform well on improved trade sentiment, especially in Asia. While we don’t believe this to be the end of the US-China rivalry, we do expect a softer tone to be used by the US government going forward, which will likely benefit these markets. In addition, many Asian countries have managed to contain the virus and are ahead in the economic restart.

As long-term investors, we shall take time to consider the Biden presidency and shape our portfolios to reflect the evolving world. This is likely to mean a blend of those progressive, innovative businesses that are part of the new world, balanced with this companies that will restructure, evolve and continue to be good businesses, but where the market has already thrown in the towel. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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September 2020

Back to Work Stocks

 As the third quarter of 2020 draws to a close, we are faced with the daunting prospect of a COVID winter as government measures become more restrictive once again in combatting the virus. For markets, however, it is already the Spring as they tend to look through short term issues and into the future. In March this year, we were nearing the lowest point in the crisis and equity markets were rightly predicting one of the sharpest and most severe recessions in history. The nature of the recession hit certain sectors more than others and, as we emerge, it is clear that a rising tide is not lifting all boats. This month we look at those areas of the markets that have fared well, to those that have done poorly –in considering what next for markets. 

Technology is the well documented winner of the COVID crisis. The forced lockdown, followed by tight restrictions globally, has required us all to change the way we live, work, shop and communicate –and the digital world has been our gateway. The NASDAQ (US benchmark technology index) has hit new all-time highs almost on a weekly basis over the summer, but does that mean it will lead going forward? We don’t think so. A large part of the increase in the prices of these stocks has been on valuation uplift alone –meaning that whilst many stocks in the sector have seen earnings pick up, not nearly enough to justify such staggeringly high prices. Gravity always catches up –either these technology businesses need to really deliver (on earnings), or these elevated shares prices will mean revert (downwards). 

Whilst we are sure that the world will not return to the way it was pre-COVID, technology is not the only beneficiary. The UK Government and others around the world are using the next wave of support to tackle the climate emergency and other key future trends, rather than keep failed companies on life-support –focusing help on those industries and sectors that are not only survivors but “thrivers”in the new world. Investors may be underestimating the power of human ingenuity. It is not the job of a handful of technology stocks to pick us up and dust us down –there are many great businesses in the pack that will emerge as those set to thrive next year and beyond. So, we are looking at those regions and sectors that we feel are best placed to fare well as we move into 2021 and beyond, where we do not believe share prices are excessive and opportunities lie. We are minded to avoid significant exposure to deep value areas of the energy market and those that are simply in structural decline, focusing on those cyclical opportunities that we believe will emerge stronger.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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