February 2021

Bond Rout

The bond market had one of its worst months in years in February as benchmark yields rose consistently throughout the month. The US 10-year yield (a bellwether for the bond market) peaked at 1.5% at month end, after starting the year below 1%. Whilst it is not terribly surprising that bond yields should rise as the economy improves, the speed of the rise is what has taken investors by surprise –with bond yields reaching year-end forecasts in just a couple of months. A stronger growth and inflationary environment were the catalyst for the move, with the market believing that interest rates will be increased sooner and faster than expected. The effect of rising bond yields spilled over into other assets too with varying degrees of impact.

 Regular readers will know that we have been writing on inflationary pressures building for over six months now. Market expectations of inflation also reached new highs in February. Whilst many (including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell) believe inflationary pressures will be short lived, and transitory in nature, the market appears to perceive the risk being to the upside of this view. 

The effect of the move in bonds was also acutely felt in certain sectors of the equity and commodity markets. Within equities, “growthcompanies –which benefit from a low-rate environment, where the opportunity cost of waiting for their future value to emerge is lower –were hardest hit. In commodities, gold, whilst often being considered an inflation hedge, also came under pressure, as rising yields (particularly relative to inflation expectations) make holding gold less appealing. 

Relative safety was found in the “COVID losers” –those companies that fared worse in the pandemic. This is because part of the shift higher in bond yields was due to the imminent reopening (of the economy), likely to lead to strong economic growth and a reflationary environment. Cyclically focused businesses –such as airlines, pubs, banks, house builders, etc. –are best placed to benefit from such a backdrop. This is the area of the market known as “value” and has been broadly outperforming its “growth” counterpart since news of the vaccine first emerged in November. However, much of the easy money has now been made in the “value section of the market –going forward, stock selection will need to be more nuanced to determine those companies that will thrive, and not just survive, in 2021.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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January 2021

The Big Short (Squeeze)

It has been a year now since the first cases of COVID were reported in the UK –a year that has seen an extraordinary range of investor emotions. From denial and panic, as the pandemic raged across the world; followed by relief and optimism, as investors began to look towards a brighter future. The start of the year has seen that excitement expand, most recently with the scenes witnessed in the last week of January, as US retail investors exposed the vulnerabilities of Wall Street hedge funds.

Thanks to the army of day traders, using the social network Reddit to tout and bid up out-of-favour stocks and squeeze short sellers, some of the most unloved names have seen their share prices rocket in recent weeks. Retail investors have been targeting the most beaten down stocks in the market, for which GameStop –a video game and consumer electronics, retailer –has been the poster child (seeing its share price increase by a staggering 1,800% this year). In recent yearsthese stocks have been easy pickings for hedge funds to short (betting that the price will fall), often in sectors that are in structural decline. However, an online coup has been building: the theory being –if enough people were to buy such a stock, that would drive the price up to an extent that hedge funds would be forced to unwind their short positions and buy back the shares, driving the price up further –a self-fulfilling upward spiral. A social network, several hundred thousand members strong, and instant access trading accounts are a potent mix. Like locusts, going from one to the other, the most heavily shorted stocks in the US market are one by one becoming the top performing stocks in 2021. 

Historically, this level of investor excitement has been characterised by a market bubble, and an ensuing ‘pop’. However, looking across sectors and countries, we conclude that there is no generalised bubble yet, and most long-term investors continue to climb a wall of worry rather than deem the market to offer perpetual risk-free return. That is not to say that recent market dynamics are not of cause for concern and certain areas of the market are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics.

What does that mean for long-term investors? Clearly, this sort of opportunism is not our game, nor a strategy over the long-term that is sensible. When this particular hysteriaends, andend it will –driven by regulation (market collusion), restricted trading, or major losses after the party stops –fundamentals will return as the driver of asset prices. What it does remind us of, however, is the fragility of the market at times, and that everything has a price. Regular readers will know that we have gradually been rotating portfolios into more value related investments, that could benefit from a re-opening of the economy but also, crucially, offer just that –value, to investors, relative to pockets of the market that are unequivocally very inflated.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trading name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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First Quarter 2021

The final quarter of 2020 was as eventful as its predecessors in the year – albeit a much more buoyant one for equity investors. Two major events dominated the news in the fourth quarter and came in quick succession early in November: the US election and the announcement of the first vaccine in the fight against COVID. The latter was the big win for stocks that (like us all) were beginning to suffer from COVID-fatigue. Unlike the rally in the second quarter which was focused on a small subset of the market – notably technology and healthcare – the vaccine news led to a large market rotation into more cyclical names that the pandemic had hit the hardest. 

It is clear that vaccine progress is now a key driver for markets. The speed with which they have been produced, alongside the efficacy that has been achieved, is nothing short of remarkable. Now it is about distribution. COVID cases began soaring again in December – particularly in Europe and the US – new strains and the colder weather fuelling the spread. In recent months markets have been able to look through this with hope on the horizon for a large scale and effective vaccine roll-out. There may, however, be pockets of equity market volatility as investor sentiment ebbs and flows on latest lockdown measures and hockey stick charts cross the news wires of new infections. This could lead to investors favouring in the first few months of this year similar assets that did well in 2020 – stay-at-home stocks, Asian equities and precious metals.

Despite the deep recession experience in 2020, global equities finished the year at record highs, fuelled by demand for (now significantly over-valued) technology and equivalent “growth” stocks. The UK market, which is often regarded as a cyclical bellwether, fared poorly in 2020, ending the year in negative territory even after a strong rebound late in the year. But we think the rally in the UK market, seen in Q4 2020, could continue when economic activity ramps up in the Spring as value stocks (e.g. materials, energy, industrials, financials) make a sustained resurgence. Changes in the leading sectors (e.g. growth stocks to value stocks) are common arising out of recessions, with value tending to outperform in the early stages of recovery. Given the extent of the long-term underperformance of value stocks, we think the initial move in November has further to run in 2021. 

We begin the year relatively neutral on risk assets – looking to build up stocks that favour the economic recovery and a reflationary environment as opportunities present themselves.

Opinions constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without warning. The information in this document is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other investment or banking product, nor does it constitute a personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Where an investment involves exposure to a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of the investment, and the income from it may go down as well as up. Interested parties should seek advice from their Investment Adviser. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in Scotland SC231678. Registered Office Edinburgh Quay, 133 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9BA.

December 2020

Let’s Get Active

2020 marked a sea change in the merits of an active approach to investment management – as opposed to passive, which dominated much of the last decade. 2010 – 2020 saw a rapid increase in the use of index funds and passive forms of investment management. The macro backdrop was hugely supportive of this, culminating in zero interest rates in much of the developed world; the net result of which was the lifting of most asset prices. COVID has accelerated the end of that cycle, with 2020 seeing a huge variety of returns across regions, sectors and assets –benefitting an active approach to fund management once again.

We start 2021 plunged back into a new wave of the COVID crisis – but with the (realistic) hope that, in a matter of months, the vaccine will pull us out and we will begin to return to a more normal way of life. The market is, of course, looking beyond the next few months and to what lies ahead – as many global markets finished 2020 at all-time highs (led by the US). However, asset prices are (on most metrics) expensive as we enter a new year, with an extraordinary run since the nadir of the crisis last March. Opportunity for returns appears sparse. That said, with the green shoots of recovery comes opportunity and the investment landscape never fails to provide rich hunting grounds for investors prepared to look hard enough – and so we wish to highlight an area of investment opportunity we see faring well in 2021, and beyond: the UK.

Here in the UK, we are at the forefront of vaccine development and roll-out, but also one of the hardest hit countries from the pandemic. At this juncture, our local market looks particularly interesting – the UK market has been unloved for a number of years now, partly due to the cyclical nature of its (FTSE 100) constituents, but also because global investor sentiment to the UK has been cautious (largely due to Brexit uncertainty). 2020 was a particularly poor year for UK equities, relative to global peers, although the fourth quarter of 2020 (triggered by the vaccine announcements) saw that begin to change. We believe the UK market is one of the few fairly priced markets in the developed world, that is likely to fare well on a re-opening of the global economy, as investors rotate away from stay-at-home stocks. Some easing of the Brexit impasse, with a trade deal being reached, and a strong global recovery should make for a rich hunting ground for UK investors.

Finally, we shall be writing more on inflation in the months ahead as we have portfolios positioned for this to increase in the years ahead, through our holdings in precious metals, inflation linked bonds, infrastructure and property assets. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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November 2020

The Great Rotation

 November has been the landmark month in the fight against COVID 19. In quick succession Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca all came out with their version of a vaccine – each trumping the former on the practicalities of distribution (storage temperatures). It was the efficacy number that was the standout figure in the announcements, far exceeding expectations and markets have reacted accordingly. We have seen a significant rotation from stay at home stocks to re-opening stocks.

The US election rallied investor spirits early in the month, cheering a Biden victory. This was tempered by the prospect of a divided Congress (with the Democrats taking the House and the Republicans having control of the Senate). This is not the “blue wave” expected by markets, but good enough –as it means Trump’s corporate tax cuts will stay in place while fiscal stimulus should turn out to be sufficient, rather than excessive. Policymaking should also become less erratic with Biden in the White House, which could reduce the risk premium on equities over time.

Markets didn’t have long to ponder the election, when we had the first release of vaccine results from Pfizer/BioNTech on 9th November. This triggered the start of a significant market rotation from those companies that have fared well during the pandemic (healthcare, technology, etc.) to those that have not (financials, industrials, travel & leisure, etc.). Over the last few years, the market had already been favouring the former (growth style) companies and shunning the latter (value style) companies. COVID extended the divergence to the extreme. The vaccine news triggered an immediate rotation into these deeply unloved and lowly valued sectors. The ensuing follow up vaccine results from Moderna and AstraZeneca compounded this rotation –capping off an exceptional month for value investors. 

Throughout the summer, we have been selectively buying funds that have exposure to these sectors, not with a view to predicting a successful vaccine, rather becoming concerned on valuations of some high-flying technology and related stay at home beneficiaries. Value investing is fraught with traps (those companies that are in structural decline) and therefore care needs to be made in selecting those managers we believe can identify great business at good discounts to fundamentals, where we believe the next few years could yield strong returns.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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October 2020

US Elections and Markets: Vaccine Boost 

The US election took place last week and the outcome was a clear victory for Joe Biden. President-elect Biden flipped the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Additionally, while it may take time to roll out, the recent positive US vaccine trial news looks to be very promising, with Pfizer finding a 90% efficacy rate in its latest trial.

The added complication, if the Democrats fail to take control of the Senate, has significant implications for US government policy going forward. Two Senate seats in Georgia are headed for a January run off election, giving Democrats a narrow path to winning both and yielding a 50-50 Senate, with the vice president as the tie breaker. A divided government (with Republicans retaining their control of the Senate) could see greater regulation for many sectors (such as the big technology companies), but big-ticket legislative action (including large-scale fiscal stimulus and public investment, tax, healthcare and climate related legislation), would likely face significant hurdles.

Some additional fiscal relief in the near term looks possible, but we see the size and scope of fiscal stimulus and public investment as more modest than a united Democratic government (i.e. control of both the House and the Senate) would likely deliver. Fiscal stimulus will be present in some shape or form however to aid the recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic, so we still expect government yields to slowly move up over the next few years, along with inflation expectations.

A Biden win likely signifies a return to more predictable trade and foreign policy. We believe emerging market assets should perform well on improved trade sentiment, especially in Asia. While we don’t believe this to be the end of the US-China rivalry, we do expect a softer tone to be used by the US government going forward, which will likely benefit these markets. In addition, many Asian countries have managed to contain the virus and are ahead in the economic restart.

As long-term investors, we shall take time to consider the Biden presidency and shape our portfolios to reflect the evolving world. This is likely to mean a blend of those progressive, innovative businesses that are part of the new world, balanced with this companies that will restructure, evolve and continue to be good businesses, but where the market has already thrown in the towel. 

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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Fourth Quarter 2020

They say it takes 66 days to form a new habit. After over six months of forced change to many aspects of our daily life, a new paradigm is emerging that is likely to have a profound effect on the next decade. Governments have realised over the summer that keeping all businesses on life support is no longer the right course – instead, focus on those industries, sectors and parts of the economy that are likely to thrive, rather than just survive, as we come out of this crisis.

Looking back over the last 100 years, each decade has broadly presented as a paradigm – a clear regime. For example, the 1920s were “roaring”; the 1930s were in “depression”; the 1970s were inflationary; and the 1980s were the reverse. Recent paradigms have included the debt boom and bust of the financial crisis in 2008, followed by monetary expansion lifting asset prices – increasing the wealth divide and leading to populist uprisings – in recent years. COVID has accelerated the shift to a new paradigm for which, like in previous decades, there will be winners and losers.  

Technology is the well documented beneficiary of the COVID crisis. The forced lockdown, followed by tight restrictions globally, has required us all to change the way we live, work, shop and communicate – and the digital world has been our gateway. Whilst we are sure that the world will not return to the way it was pre-COVID, technology is not the only beneficiary. The UK Government, and others around the world are using the next wave of support to tackle the climate emergency and other key future trends, focusing their help on those industries and sectors that are thriving in the new world. 

For that reason, we are looking beyond a handful of successful technology stocks to those regions and sectors, where opportunities lie that we feel are best placed to fare well as we move into 2021 and beyond, and where we do not believe share prices are excessive. We are minded to avoid significant exposure to deep value areas of the energy market and those that are simply in structural decline, focusing on those cyclical opportunities that we believe will emerge stronger than before.

Opinions constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without warning. The information in this document is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other investment or banking product, nor does it constitute a personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Where an investment involves exposure to a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of the investment, and the income from it may go down as well as up. Interested parties should seek advice from their Investment Adviser. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in Scotland SC231678. Registered Office Edinburgh Quay, 133 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9BA.

September 2020

Back to Work Stocks

 As the third quarter of 2020 draws to a close, we are faced with the daunting prospect of a COVID winter as government measures become more restrictive once again in combatting the virus. For markets, however, it is already the Spring as they tend to look through short term issues and into the future. In March this year, we were nearing the lowest point in the crisis and equity markets were rightly predicting one of the sharpest and most severe recessions in history. The nature of the recession hit certain sectors more than others and, as we emerge, it is clear that a rising tide is not lifting all boats. This month we look at those areas of the markets that have fared well, to those that have done poorly –in considering what next for markets. 

Technology is the well documented winner of the COVID crisis. The forced lockdown, followed by tight restrictions globally, has required us all to change the way we live, work, shop and communicate –and the digital world has been our gateway. The NASDAQ (US benchmark technology index) has hit new all-time highs almost on a weekly basis over the summer, but does that mean it will lead going forward? We don’t think so. A large part of the increase in the prices of these stocks has been on valuation uplift alone –meaning that whilst many stocks in the sector have seen earnings pick up, not nearly enough to justify such staggeringly high prices. Gravity always catches up –either these technology businesses need to really deliver (on earnings), or these elevated shares prices will mean revert (downwards). 

Whilst we are sure that the world will not return to the way it was pre-COVID, technology is not the only beneficiary. The UK Government and others around the world are using the next wave of support to tackle the climate emergency and other key future trends, rather than keep failed companies on life-support –focusing help on those industries and sectors that are not only survivors but “thrivers”in the new world. Investors may be underestimating the power of human ingenuity. It is not the job of a handful of technology stocks to pick us up and dust us down –there are many great businesses in the pack that will emerge as those set to thrive next year and beyond. So, we are looking at those regions and sectors that we feel are best placed to fare well as we move into 2021 and beyond, where we do not believe share prices are excessive and opportunities lie. We are minded to avoid significant exposure to deep value areas of the energy market and those that are simply in structural decline, focusing on those cyclical opportunities that we believe will emerge stronger.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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August 2020

A New Paradigm

Over the last century, each decade has been synonymous with an environment that has typified that period – a paradigm. From the great depression of the 1930’s, to the war time period of the 40’s. The 70’s saw high inflation and low growth, whereas the 80’s were the reverse of that. Markets adjust to these environments accordingly. The most recent decade has been typified by quantitative easing, lifting most assets. And it is this very act that is likely to have a significant bearing on this decade – effectively lowering the expected return for traditional asset classes. Investors therefore need to look elsewhere for returns and that is a core reason we see a renaissance in the value of active management.

The developed world finds itself almost entirely at record low (in some cases negative) interest rates, thanks to the aggressive policy action by central banks over the last decade and more recently as a result of COVID-19. This has had a knock-on effect of boosting asset prices, even though the underlying economic environment remains challenging at best.

We strongly believe that the traditional asset allocation structure, whilst still forming an important element of portfolios, will not be the one best placed to weather the next ten years. Take UK Government bonds for example – the yield at the end of August of the UK 10-year government bond was close to 0.3%. This means that investors buying these assets (formerly a popular way of providing some protection in portfolios) will receive a paltry total return of just over 3% over a decade. Take into account inflation and investors are guaranteeing a real loss on their money, if held until maturity. A passive approach is committed to buying such assets, whereas as active managers, we have the ability to select other assets, where returns can be more attractive, and it does not necessarily need to be at the cost of greater risk. Portfolio balance can be achieved by blending assets that compliment one another in varying environments – gold is a classic example of an equity compliment. Whilst gold and equities are volatile assets, their drivers are often different – gold will tend to fare well in a risk off environment, whilst stocks will struggle – however collectively, we believe that both assets will deliver solid returns over the long-term.

Other assets considered are that of absolute return funds – these collective investments are well diversified and have the potential to do well in varying market conditions. The severe falls in stocks in March this year was a true test for such strategies and winners have emerged. We favour those absolute return funds that we believe will deliver solid long-term returns, but with low correlation to equity and bond markets.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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July 2020

Gold

Gold prices closed in on $2,000 at the end of July, marking the highest point for the yellow metal in history. Regular readers will know that gold has been a core element in our portfolios for some time. Since the end of 2018, the backdrop has been very supportive for gold, and events of 2020 have only reinforced our view on the precious metal. This year has been the perfect storm to push gold prices up to new highs and many of the reasons for favouring the asset previously still hold true. In particular, it provides protection against a growth shock and against an inflation spike. It also usually performs well in times of dollar weakness, growth of money supply, persistently low rates and assists with portfolio diversification.

One of the main drivers for gold has been falling real yields – that is, the US Treasury yield minus the rate of inflation. Rising interest rate environments often have a dual negative effect of increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold as well as curbing inflation. So, when the inverse of this happens and real yields fall, gold tends to fare well. And that has indeed been evident this year, as US interest rates have fallen sharply.

Gold is not the only precious metal investors are paying close attention to. Silver has started to perform well in recent months too, now outperforming gold. Silver shares a number of the same characteristics as gold, and can perform well in many similar scenarios. However, silver is more cyclical than gold due to its industrial applications.

Investors wishing to access precious metals can do so through two main routes – physical replication or through shares in precious metal related companies. We aim to give clients the opportunity for exposure to both of these. Investing in precious metal producing companies is widely regarded as a leveraged way of maximising returns – when prices go up, investors expect related companies to fair much better, and vice versa. Cost of production is ever changing, but most large companies are sustainable above $1,000 gold. As prices move significantly higher, margins can improve dramatically. During times of severe market stress, it is possible that gold companies and the underlying commodity can lose their correlation due to company specific matters and investor concerns over equities generally. We saw this at the peak of the crisis in March this year. The rational reasons for owning gold are becoming ever more apparent to investors. We do not believe that prices are yet at extreme levels nor are investors exhibiting the sort of euphoric signs that often signal a topping point for an asset. We continue, therefore, to see gold as a core element in portfolios.

Important Information

Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning Neither CS Managers Ltd, CS Investment Managers nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon any information contained in this document. CS Investment Managers is a trade name of CS Managers Ltd, 43 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4HQ. CS Managers Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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